If you are shooting for maximum compatibility with the broadest possible audience, than shooting for OpenGL 1.5 would probably be the best bet.
If you are shooting for a crowd that is more familiar with games on the PC, than OpenGL 2.0 and up is a fairly safe target. The majority of individuals who take PC games even slightly seriously are going to have a dedicated GPU in their machine. Even if a motherboard has an on-board Intel GPU, as long as it is running its graphics through a dedicated 3D card, the more recent versions of OpenGL with shader support should run fine.
Some sites collect stats about OpenGL support by graphics hardware, this one for example:
http://feedback.wildfiregames.com/report/opengl/
The biggest danger for trying to run GLSL shaders is in older laptops. The majority of desktop systems are going to be fine. I'm still targeting OpenGL 1.5 for some of my projects. But this is more a choice of ease-of-use than features.
That seems exaggeration to me, OpenGL 1.x doesn't have shaders and is not even officially documented on opengl.org any more. Where do you find a reliable function reference?