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876977 Posts in 32842 Topics- by 24283 Members - Latest Member: gildabq52

May 18, 2013, 08:38:08 AM
TIGSource ForumsPlayerGeneralWarning: U.S. Politics
Poll
Question: Who you rootin' for?
Hillary Clinton - 2 (1.3%)
John Edwards - 1 (0.6%)
Barack Obama - 98 (61.6%)
Rudy Giuliani - 1 (0.6%)
Mike Huckabee - 2 (1.3%)
John McCain - 8 (5%)
Ron Paul - 16 (10.1%)
Mitt Romney - 2 (1.3%)
Other (Specify) - 4 (2.5%)
I don't give a damn! - 25 (15.7%)
Total Voters: 142

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Author Topic: Warning: U.S. Politics  (Read 52032 times)
Zaphos
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« Reply #195 on: November 03, 2008, 04:49:12 PM »

Ew, Obama. lol
Why do you troll, Skofo.  Play nice.
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dither
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« Reply #196 on: November 03, 2008, 06:05:01 PM »

The only two causes repeatedly cited, as far as I can tell, are the idea that the rising housing market would continue to generate profits indefinitely and the fact that competition in the market among lenders produced a feedback cycle wherein every risky decision reached by one lending firm had to be appropriated by everyone else in order to remain competitive. The latter is really the problem with the free market, in essence: sometimes the invisible hand slaps you in the face.

The fact is, all indicators seem to point to crashes like this as being 'natural' occurrences in the free market. Issues of feedback in dynamical systems often produce wildly chaotic behavior. There's actually absolutely no reason to assume that a self-organizing system like the free market is stable. Fiscal libertarianism takes stability of the market as an a priori assumption, and derives the fact that radical changes must be produced by external factors from that assumption, when in reality the market appears to be capable of producing its own strange, extreme behaviors.

Why would you conclude that crashes like this are "natural occurrences in the free market" when they happen, again and again, in the absence of a free market?

The term "free market" does not mean a market that is, by someone's arbitrary standards, under-regulated by government. That would not be a very useful definition, since everyone could have a different idea about how many regulations should be written, and what they should be in the particulars. Rather, a free market is a market in which government's only role is to prohibit violence and fraud, and to enforce lawful contracts. Clearly, the U.S. government, like all governments in existence, does much more than this.

I'll give just one example, which I think is the most pertinent. In a free market, prices are affected by the interplay of supply and demand. Thus, the price to borrow money, the interest rate, is a reflection of the actual pool of savings from which loans can be made. A low interest rate signals a high rate of savings, and a future-oriented time preference among the public, who are foregoing present consumption for future consumption.

In our non-free market, we have government-created central banks that exist for the explicit purpose of planning the economy by fixing interest rates. They almost always keep the interest rate artificially low, sometimes as low as 0%. They do this by purchasing assets on the market with money created out of thin air. When these new funds enter the banking system, the result is that credit becomes cheaper than it would be in a free market, and loans are made that would not have been made absent the central bank manipulations.

The newly created money was not saved by someone who received it in exchange for producing something of value. It will eventually reduce the purchasing power of the monetary unit by causing prices to rise as it works its way through the economic system. But it also results in an artifical economic boom, or "bubble," which is nothing but a cluster of unsound investments that were made possible by the central bank's loose credit policy. The investments are unsound because there is no real savings, and thus no demand, to support them once the inflationary spigot is turned off.

The crash happens when economic reality is reasserted. The central bank slows down its inflation, out of necessity, to avoid runaway inflation, and the unsound nature of the bubble activities is revealed. Scarce resources that were diverted to unviable projects are freed up to be used for other, more economical purposes. Businesses go under. In reality, they were walking dead for a long time, kept alive by artificially cheap credit.

When governments try to prevent this correction, by propping up failed businesses, bailing out banks, fixing prices, etc., they turn the crash into a long, drawn out depression. This is what happened in the Great Depression, and it is happening now. Houses were over-valued, but the U.S. government, in cahoots with other governments, is trying to prevent prices from falling. They won't succeed, and the longer they keep at it, the more painful will be the eventual correction.

In short, it is not the market that created the instability. The problem stems from government control over money and banking. That is the root cause before you get to any other considerations, the CRA, the regulatory regime, etc. I could get into the ways in which a free market in money and banking would make this kind of inflationary bubble impossible, but I've written too long already. I hope it's been clear enough to understand (it's not the most accessible subject).

P.S. Hi! (First post.)
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xerus
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« Reply #197 on: November 03, 2008, 06:11:23 PM »

That is one hell of a first post.
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Valter
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« Reply #198 on: November 03, 2008, 06:20:20 PM »

I care much less about this election than I probably should, mostly because I'm about 6 months too young to vote. I support Obama, though, since he seems much more likely to be able to fix the current economic trouble.
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Inane
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« Reply #199 on: November 03, 2008, 06:28:18 PM »

More likey, haha, I doubt it.
No one's gonna fix it, and any attempts to do so are just liable to worsen it, it would seem! :D

From what I understand, it will never right itself through any piece of legislation, especially pumping 700 billion dollars into the banks.


P.S. just read Dither's post (Hi! Welcome!), and my post is kinda redundant now, haha.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2008, 06:31:35 PM by Inane » Logged

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Chris Whitman
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« Reply #200 on: November 03, 2008, 06:33:02 PM »

In short, it is not the market that created the instability. The problem stems from government control over money and banking. That is the root cause before you get to any other considerations, the CRA, the regulatory regime, etc. I could get into the ways in which a free market in money and banking would make this kind of inflationary bubble impossible, but I've written too long already. I hope it's been clear enough to understand (it's not the most accessible subject).

But a market like that has never, ever existed. Commerce has always been tied to existing structures of power. It's nothing more than an ideological point to believe that a free market is inherently stable or self-correcting. There's no evidence from which you could draw that conclusion.

You're throwing all these suppositions about the free market around like they're facts, but we could just as well say that a market run by unicorns would be perfect because the unicorn market would use magic to self-correct. This is all just an elaborate narrative to shore up your ideology.

Whether or not New Deal economics aided, impeded or simply had no effect on the Great Depression is actually a point of great debate for anyone who is not a Libertarian (they already know the answer beforehand). It's dishonest to simply present the idea that it impeded the recovery of the economy as if it were fact.

That's what I'm so fucking sick of. It wouldn't matter if it were true that the New Deal had damaged the recovery of the economy, it would be accepted by Libertarians with religious fervour simply because it backed up their ideology. Fiscal libertarianism is nothing more than a fantasy of the moderately wealthy, those who make enough money to pay taxes while not benefiting from corporate influence on government.

It sounds like a hell of an argument, because it's been meticulously developed, but it's just all just a story. Economic issues are just not that simple. There is no such clear line of cause and effect in a system as complicated as the economy, and if you think there is some magic system which will be self-correcting and stable, you are living in a fucking fantasy land. People spend their entire lives studying economics to try to make sound financial decisions, and often those go horribly awry.

If the solution were in an Ayn Rand novel, all Objectivists would already be rich.
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« Reply #201 on: November 03, 2008, 06:37:03 PM »

I think that's telling - I don't believe that Obama has picked them because they are necessarily conservative, but because they are the right people for the job.

Oh yeah, obviously I'm far more in favour of Obama than McCain (not that it matters, as I don't live in the U.S.). I was more responding to the idea people seem to have that he is going to be some kind of crazy socialist or something.

Honestly, I think the U.S. could be a lot more liberal in terms of its policies (socialized medicine would be nice, for example), but I'd rather have a relatively centrist president in power than a right-wing nutjob.

Haha, what, you were responding to me, and I specifically said it's laughable to call Obama a socialist.

I also think "Fiscal libertarianism is nothing more than a fantasy of the moderately wealthy, those who make enough money to pay taxes while not benefiting from corporate influence on government." is incorrect in many cases. I'm a fiscal libertarian yet dirt poor; I made around $7000 last year and in the past my family has lived on welfare and food stamps. I also currently live in government-supported housing, where I pay a third of my income for rent and the government pays the rest. I'm still a fiscal libertarian, one's wealth has nothing to do with it, in fact I'd even suspect the rich are less likely to be libertarian because libertarianism is anti-corporate and most of the rich are rich because of the corporate stock market.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2008, 06:43:58 PM by rinkuhero » Logged

Chris Whitman
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« Reply #202 on: November 03, 2008, 06:38:28 PM »

Haha, what, you were responding to me, and I specifically said it's laughable to call Obama a socialist.

No, that part was really more of an aside.
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« Reply #203 on: November 03, 2008, 06:47:41 PM »

Ah. I added another paragraph above, if you missed it.
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Chris Whitman
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« Reply #204 on: November 03, 2008, 07:02:30 PM »

Libertarianism is often touted by the moderately wealthy: usually the dwindling middle class, because it offers both hope for success in the future based on the effort they feel they've put in, coupled with a reason for why they haven't already achieved that success.

"The market is fixed and unfair. Someone is keeping me down. If it were all down to work ethic and personal qualities, I'd be on top, because I'm the smartest and I work the hardest. If only there were a real free market."

I'm not suggesting that only the middle class like the idea of Libertarianism, but by and large that is the group you will find proposing it. A lot of people in tech, middle managers, people who can't make it into the top ranks because there's already some rich asshole there.

Obviously I'm not saying you haven't been through some shit, and I'm not accusing you of being a bad person or anything, but I think the ideas of Fiscal Libertarianism are just plain unrealistic, and I can't stand when they're promoted as fact with incredible arrogance (also not something I'm accusing you of, but the above poster comes close, I think).

Everyone's politics are just a story. The story can be right and the story can be wrong. You can have this incredibly complex story with remarkable internal consistency and logic, but it's no good if it doesn't describe reality. The fact is that we are stuck with information asymmetry, irrational consumers, and a global market driven by the increasing need to create demands to further economic growth. Adding unrestrained and unmanaged greed into the mix... well, I don't see it fixing things. It doesn't sound like an economy to me -- it sounds like a piracy.

I mean, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe someone would kick off a laissez-faire economic system and it would run perfectly as a meritocracy (which I don't really like the idea of, but it's better than whatever we have now) and people would be a lot better off, but maybe it would also spiral out of control and produce mega-corporations with even fewer restraints and an even tighter stranglehold on the market. We really just don't know. So far we have a bunch of stories of things that might happen, and I just think it's arrogant to try to pass one of them off as inevitable fact, at this point.
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« Reply #205 on: November 03, 2008, 07:07:28 PM »

I mean, in this particular case we know that regulation had one effect on the subprime mortgage crisis, in any case: fixing interest rates drove people away from government bonds and towards mortgage-backed securities.

Whether this created the problem is a bit like asking whether aggressive brokers created the problem. It just can't be represented that simply. Government actions had an effect, and dudes and ladies just responding to market demands also had an effect. To say that the entire thing had its origin in government action is just silly.

The whole crisis may not have occurred if the Greenspan had not fixed U.S. interest rates, but it also certainly would not have happened if all the mortgage brokers had decided to take a stand and act responsibly instead of responding mindlessly to market demands. You can't just lift one piece out and say "This caused it because that's the part I don't like."
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« Reply #206 on: November 03, 2008, 07:40:52 PM »

Some other thoughts on the election I wrote down.
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dither
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« Reply #207 on: November 03, 2008, 09:08:49 PM »

You're throwing all these suppositions about the free market around like they're facts, but we could just as well say that a market run by unicorns would be perfect because the unicorn market would use magic to self-correct. This is all just an elaborate narrative to shore up your ideology.

Whether or not New Deal economics aided, impeded or simply had no effect on the Great Depression is actually a point of great debate for anyone who is not a Libertarian (they already know the answer beforehand). It's dishonest to simply present the idea that it impeded the recovery of the economy as if it were fact.

That's what I'm so fucking sick of. It wouldn't matter if it were true that the New Deal had damaged the recovery of the economy, it would be accepted by Libertarians with religious fervour simply because it backed up their ideology. Fiscal libertarianism is nothing more than a fantasy of the moderately wealthy, those who make enough money to pay taxes while not benefiting from corporate influence on government.

Should I even bother responding to this? It's basically an ad hominem, i.e. "You just think this because you're a member of the bourgeois." What's next? Are you going to deny me a job in the Ministry of Lampshades because I wasn't a peasant farmer before the revolution?

Quote
It sounds like a hell of an argument, because it's been meticulously developed, but it's just all just a story. Economic issues are just not that simple. There is no such clear line of cause and effect in a system as complicated as the economy, and if you think there is some magic system which will be self-correcting and stable, you are living in a fucking fantasy land. People spend their entire lives studying economics to try to make sound financial decisions, and often those go horribly awry.

So, by your standard, no one should have anything to say about the economy. Or does that just apply to libertarians, because you don't like their ideas? It seems like you are the one letting ideology cloud your judgement. You claimed a free market brought about the economic downturn. I corrected you by pointing out how the entire money and banking system of the United States and other countries is run by government-chartered central banks with a legal privilege to create money out of thin air (essentially counterfeiting). Then I explained how this wreaks havoc on the economy. You haven't written a single sentence to challenge anything I said. Instead, you've called me arrogant and pronounced that I'm wrong, as if your saying so makes it so.

Well, that's fine, if that's what you want to believe. All the best to you.  Beer!
« Last Edit: November 10, 2008, 12:44:13 PM by dither » Logged
Paul Eres
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« Reply #208 on: November 03, 2008, 09:34:26 PM »

Yeah, I think it's a bad idea generally to attack ideas based on ad hominem attacks like that, even if it were completely true. I don't mean that you're (ILC) being vicious or anything, just that your core argument against it so far have been 'they use faith, they're bad people, they don't use reason, they assume their premises' etc., rather than addressing points directly (although you have addressed some points directly to your credit, I just don't like the general approach of vilifying the people you argue against).
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« Reply #209 on: November 03, 2008, 10:02:46 PM »

For the interested: Inflation lesson.
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