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876948 Posts in 32840 Topics- by 24282 Members - Latest Member: serioussam909

May 18, 2013, 06:55:53 AM
TIGSource ForumsPlayerGeneralWarning: U.S. Politics
Poll
Question: Who you rootin' for?
Hillary Clinton - 2 (1.3%)
John Edwards - 1 (0.6%)
Barack Obama - 98 (61.6%)
Rudy Giuliani - 1 (0.6%)
Mike Huckabee - 2 (1.3%)
John McCain - 8 (5%)
Ron Paul - 16 (10.1%)
Mitt Romney - 2 (1.3%)
Other (Specify) - 4 (2.5%)
I don't give a damn! - 25 (15.7%)
Total Voters: 142

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Author Topic: Warning: U.S. Politics  (Read 52030 times)
Paul Eres
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« Reply #210 on: November 03, 2008, 10:04:42 PM »

Haha, I saw that, although one thing to consider is that wealth grows as money grows, so if we did *not* print out any more money at all, there'd be deflation, since  year to year there'd be more stuff, more people, more wealth, but the same amount of dollars. So it's a delicate balance: the Fed has to print out money in order to avoid deflation, but too much and they'll get inflation. Lately they've been doing too much, since Bernanke is a bit less careful than Greenspan (a former Objectivist) was.
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« Reply #211 on: November 03, 2008, 10:12:09 PM »

Haha, I saw that, although one thing to consider is that wealth grows as money grows, so if we did *not* print out any more money at all, there'd be deflation, since  year to year there'd be more stuff, more people, more wealth, but the same amount of dollars. So it's a delicate balance: the Fed has to print out money in order to avoid deflation, but too much and they'll get inflation. Lately they've been doing too much, since Bernanke is a bit less careful than Greenspan (a former Objectivist) was.
Would deflation be that bad? There isn't more gold or silver created whenever a person is born.

This is a totally oblivious person asking. I haven't thought about this as deeply as you guys seem to have, but what's so wrong with having a constant amount of currency in the world? I was thinking about a theoretical Dwarf Fortress-esque MMORPG where there's only a billion or so gold in the world, and the online game's economy isn't constantly being inflated by money being made out of nowhere dropped by monsters popping out of nowhere. This type of thing devastated the economy of The Sims Online.
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Paul Eres
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« Reply #212 on: November 03, 2008, 10:13:17 PM »

Actually there is: gold and silver are continuously mined out of the ground, and more is added to the total each year. Whereas that doesn't happen with dollars.

The problem with the MMORPG you describe with a set amount of money is that as more people play it, there would be deflation, since money would be worth more and more as it became more and more scarce.
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Chris Whitman
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« Reply #213 on: November 03, 2008, 10:59:54 PM »

Should I even bother responding to this? It's basically an ad hominem, i.e. "You just think this because you're a member of the bourgeois." What's next? Are you going to deny me a job in the Ministry of Lampshades because I wasn't a peasant farmer before the revolution?

It's called cutting through the bullshit. Your statement that next I'm going to deny you a job because blah blah blah is obviously just as much of a personal attack, so cut the bullshit.

For the record, I never said you were wrong because you are pushing your ideology. Actually, it is incidental whether you are right or wrong, but the fact remains you are pushing a Libertarian ideology. I can tell because I'm not goddamn blind, and I know what the ideology looks like. If I were up here talking about labour value and control of the means of production, it would not be unreasonable for you to suggest that I am a Marxist, and that arguments against Marxism would then apply to me.

I'm not even arguing that your conclusions are wrong, I have argued, at length, that your conclusions are simply unreliable and that it is because your analytic is not founded on reality. That's a perfectly legitimate argument.

So, by your standard, no one should have anything to say about the economy. Or does that just apply to libertarians, because you don't like their ideas?

If you know your fallacies, how are you not aware that this is just poisoning the well? I don't like your ideas because they aren't founded on fact, which is entirely reasonable.

My point was actually just that the economy is really goddamn complicated. In the words of a market analyst: "economics is the science of telling you tomorrow why the prediction I made yesterday did not come true today." You really just have to listen to someone who works with the economy for a living to understand that it is really goddamn complicated. There is no magic bullet which will fix it, and it is very difficult to predict with accuracy, although it is a little easier to analyze in hindsight. Furthermore, the causes for things are often very complex and difficult to determine. The idea that all problems could be produced by one cause and fixed by one cause, without evidence, is a massive suspension of disbelief.

The idea that you just know what would happen if the economy were radically changed is silly. While everything the Libertarian outlook describes as a result of the free market is logically consistent, there is no saying it would actually function the way it is described. There is no necessary link between people's real actions and the supposed outcome, there is only a story of how you think millions of people you do not know would decide to behave under a system of untested constraints.

It seems like you are the one letting ideology cloud your judgement. You claimed a free market brought about the economic downturn. I corrected you by pointing out how the entire money and banking system of the United States and other countries is run by government-chartered central banks with a legal priviledge to create money out of thin air (essentially counterfeiting).

If we're counting fallacies, that's tu quo que, so you're now leading me by three to one. My point was that the most readily available cause was competition among brokers and investors driving down lending standards because of the perception that the current trend in housing would continue forever. Why is it I think that is the cause? I think it was something about how the people responsible said that was why they did it. There was a good NPR special where they interviewed some fairly influential bankers, as well as brokers and borrowers, about their motivations, and all of them were very forthcoming. I have heard people responsible, who were in the thick of it, actually say these things.

The accusation that the government contributed through some Rube Goldberg machine of economics may indeed be true, but it is probably a better starting place to consider the immediately available facts of why the people involved made the choices they made. Competition was a major driving force in reduced lending standards, in free market economics, competition is supposedly a stabilizing factor. I was pointing out that competition can actually be a destabilizing factor, and furthermore there is no reason to assume that it is only destabilizing under government management of the economy, other than the unverified assumption that it is such.

Also, if that's counterfeiting, how does one legitimately create currency?

Then I explained how this wreaks havoc on the economy. You haven't written a single sentence to challenge anything I said. Instead, you've called me arrogant and pronounced that I'm wrong, as if your saying so makes it so.

In addition to calling you arrogant, I have also actually written quite a lot about how you are wrong. You are choosing to look over all of that and talk only about how I said bad things about you, but you also said bad things about me, so I figure we are even now. How about the rest of everything I wrote?

I mean, ultimately, if you are going to say this is the way things are, cough up some evidence. If you could provide an example of a successful Libertarian economic system, that would be awesome.
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Chris Whitman
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« Reply #214 on: November 03, 2008, 11:05:05 PM »

Not to put too fine a point on it: we know what regulation does in some cases because we've seen it happen. We know what deregulation does in some cases because we've seen it happen. We don't know what no regulation does because we've never had zero regulation.

We have no basis for comparison and therefore basically no idea.

It's just conjectural to say 'well, of course this would happen.' Given how fast the landscape of economics changes from day to day, it's difficult enough to predict what's going to happen when we actually have historical information.

Edit: Also, yeah, we're obviously both arrogant jerk-offs: I just hate it when people arrogantly promote Libertarianism specifically, because I think it's intellectually bankrupt.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2008, 11:09:34 PM by I Like Cake » Logged

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« Reply #215 on: November 03, 2008, 11:51:04 PM »

DEBATESOURCE
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Movius
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« Reply #216 on: November 04, 2008, 06:46:11 AM »

Would deflation be that bad? There isn't more gold or silver created whenever a person is born.
Deflation is fucking terrible. People will not spend money because they know that if they save their money it will be worth more with time. If no one is buying anything then businesses cannot function without lowering prices, which means they have less to spend at other businesses and so on until everything grinds to a halt.

Theres also the fact no-one will borrow because any debt will only increase in value over time as the currency deflates and no-one will lend because they'd have to charge negative interest to make it worthwhile to the borrower.

Some economist can probably correct any mistakes I've made

Actually there is: gold and silver are continuously mined out of the ground, and more is added to the total each year. Whereas that doesn't happen with dollars.

The problem with the MMORPG you describe with a set amount of money is that as more people play it, there would be deflation, since money would be worth more and more as it became more and more scarce.
Gold is mined constantly, but there is still finite gold. Add to that the fact that existing gold can still be used to impose currency hilarity on anywhere with a gold-standard. Silver is much the same, (in fact I've read that it's fairly standard for traders to fuck around with the silver price 'for the lulz' as the youth would put it.) Because of this, gold or silver are hardly a panacea for currency woes. Also, a lot of serious proponents of a "gold standard" tend to prefer a basket of commodities or something similar.
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Valter
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« Reply #217 on: November 04, 2008, 09:23:57 AM »

Movius hit that one. Deflation is far, far worse than inflation, and it was part of the cause of the great depression.

I'd say most of the problem with the economy right now is the over-reliance on fake-money. It's sort of like the Enron fiasco a while back. Once people learn that they can make real money by shuffling fake money around, they try to manipulate fake money too much, and then it all collapses on itself. There should be some better way of defining how to balance the fake money with the real money.
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Movius
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« Reply #218 on: November 04, 2008, 09:52:46 AM »

Personally, I'd put the blame not on 'fake money' but rather the fact that certain businesses'/individuals' own money wasn't at risk.

No sane human would run up these sorts of debts at the risk of losing all their money if something went wrong... Unless of course, there was some sort of implied promise that THE MAN would come along and bail them out if/when things went pear-shaped.

Turns out the implicit promise was actually an explicit guarantee of trillions of US dollars. How wacky.
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Paul Eres
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« Reply #219 on: November 04, 2008, 10:19:34 AM »

I agree with that -- that's a good point that the implicit "backup" of knowing the government would probably bail them out if something went wrong that led to or at least encouraged increased risky loaning.

Also, the only real socialism we have in the US is socialism of the rich -- laws that indirectly transfer and now a direct transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich -- and that bailout was a good example of that (and both Obama and McCain supported it).
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« Reply #220 on: November 04, 2008, 10:44:32 AM »

As much as I hate to get into politics... The current situation is a product of bad lending practices, hands down. Banks and firms lending out money for property taking STATED income, so someone could apply for a loan to buy a house and say they were making 60,000 when in reality they were not (many people tried to get loans this way by planning on getting housemates to help with the mortgage).

(Un)surprisingly, those properties were defaulted and the banks and firms tried to borrow against that debt, trying to sell them to consumers as if they were a bond under the fallacious logic that 'the housing market always goes up'. So MORE money was lost on those properties.

Look for a moment at a few of the banks and firms that have felt little impact by this crash. These companies have very conservative lending practices, and are almost entirely banks and firms that have been established for 80+ years. Had those that currently went under been more conservative about their lending they would have been fine! So who or what is to blame here?

Weeeeeeell, there is a little thing called the CRA, the Community Reinvestment Act, which REQUIRES banks to reinvest into the housing market. However! It does not describe any kinds of provisions for HOW they should determine who to lend to; that was left to the discretion of the individual banks. Now, if the CRA had proscribed to these companies conservative terms for lending, this could have been avoided, however this would have impeded the ideal of Laissez-Faire economy (the belief that the government should let the market do what it will).

Seems pretty clear to me that it is another breakdown of the notion that the market will self regulate. Humans are inherently greedy!! It is in the nature of all animals to try to procure as much of the resources they think are necessary for themselves, and humans are no exception. Greedy individuals will always take greater risks, and when they do so with other peoples money on bad gambles this is what happens (which as many have stated is exactly what happened in the 20s).

My estimation is that this is due to incorrect regulation (and not enough) of banks and investment firms.
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Craig Stern
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« Reply #221 on: November 04, 2008, 11:29:45 AM »

You're throwing all these suppositions about the free market around like they're facts, but we could just as well say that a market run by unicorns would be perfect because the unicorn market would use magic to self-correct. This is all just an elaborate narrative to shore up your ideology.

Obama supports the unicorn market.
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deadeye
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« Reply #222 on: November 04, 2008, 06:53:18 PM »

Both Fox News and CNN agree that Obama has taken Ohio, which means that he's probably going to win.  CNN demonstrated that even if McCain took the rest of the un-projected states (except for Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii in which McCain has a snowball's chance in Hell) then he still wouldn't have enough electoral votes to take the election.

Ah, they just projected that Obama will take New Mexico.  Well, there you go.
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« Reply #223 on: November 04, 2008, 07:55:19 PM »

Goodbye Palin! Smiley

for now
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Gainsworthy
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« Reply #224 on: November 04, 2008, 08:08:12 PM »

IT'S OFFICIAL! Aww yeah. Well Done.

 Beer!  Beer!  Beer!
« Last Edit: November 04, 2008, 08:23:06 PM by Gainsworthy » Logged
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