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[MorganRamsay]

I've tried building out a chance-based disguise-discovery mechanic where, while wearing a disguise, you roll for discovery when you're in the NPC's cone of vision, and if you're discovered, you go into combat. There are ways to improve your chances, but the element of chance makes the use of disguises unpredictable. Every playthrough is different, which would normally be a good thing but it's so boring!

How would you make a disguise-discovery mechanic fun?

[SimplyRivet]

Have you ever heard of Monaco?

It's primarily a stealth game, which deals a lot with this concept. Here's a link to a video show it in action: http://youtu.be/paRfnWLsmkU?t=4m50s

Basically, your disguise has a durability. The longer that a guard looks at it, the more "Damage" it takes. Once the meter runs out, the disguise is broken. This way, instead of being a luck based mechanic it gives players more of a feeling of agency over being spotted.

The only thing that I'm curious about is that you said that it made the game boring. I would have expected it to make the game frustrating. Is it because the avoidance rates are too high?

[The Translocator]

If it's possible, give each disguise a specific "move pattern" that the player has to follow pretty closely (but not exactly) in order to avoid being spotted. For example, disguising as a security guard will only work if you follow the missing guard's basic shift patterns but exact positioning is only important at key points. Or you can have it so that doing anything the disguise shouldn't be able to do makes you get discovered- i.e. using magic while disguised as a thief or picking locks while disguised as a wizard. Random elements only really work well when it makes the actual experience different rather than stripping the game of skill (look at Spelunky or Poker. The skill stays intact even with the random elements, which keeps them interesting, whereas a game that was purely rolling dice until you get the correct number probably wouldn't be any good.) As a general rule, it should ALWAYS be possible to recover from a bad "roll" (like bluffing in Poker) through pure skill.

[MorganRamsay]

Have you ever heard of Monaco?

As a general rule, it should ALWAYS be possible to recover from a bad "roll" (like bluffing in Poker) through pure skill.

That's primarily why I don't like Monaco's disguises. I could probably do something that combines Monaco and Hitman's disguises, where your disguise wears off the longer you're in an NPC's cone of vision, but when the timer is about to run out, you can press a button to reset the timer, completely or partially.

I like the move pattern concept, but that's a bit tough to pull off in 3D.

The only thing that I'm curious about is that you said that it made the game boring. I would have expected it to make the game frustrating. Is it because the avoidance rates are too high?

There are alternative solutions that are more reliable than chance-based disguises.

[The Translocator]

Maybe it takes a while to disable the disguise so you can attack (very game-y but it does the job if you want to make it more interesting) or maybe you can't do X action (jumping, for instance, might make your fake beard and wig fall off, pulling out a gun would break the illusion that you're a nun). Also, if your AI is smart enough, you could have them "remember" where you last were if they see you while disguised so that if the alarm is raised they have a general idea of where you are, and if you do have a disguise meter that drains over time while being looked at, make it deteriorate faster the closer the enemy is to you (it would be easier to tell if they're talking to you than if they see you from across the room, for example.) You could NOT display the disguise timer and still require the player to decide whether to attack, meaning they can either
A) Run away, giving away that they're not who they say they are but getting them to a safer position
B) Attack, giving away that they're not who they say they are but letting them strike first
C) Proceed with their original plan and hope they don't detect them
A meter gives the player something to watch, but it would probably end up being micromanaged if they can see it directly. Maybe instead once their suspicion rises above a specific point they start acting notably different, giving you just enough time to react if you're paying attention but doing so in a way that feels natural.

Or maybe I'm rambling.