next »

[joseph ¯\_(ツ)_/¯]

well marketed games sell, badly marketed games dont, every once in a while soemthing gets super lucky and generates 'good marketing' thru word of mouth but that's rare and not guaranteed by quality.

This is how it is now and how it has always been -- the brief period where getting a steam or XBLA deal conferred huge amounts of free, quality press didn't break from this rule, it confirmed it.

Any bullshit about 'only bad games' having this problem is fucking ridiculous, the quality : sales ratio has never ever been close. Being good helps your odds at getting good press, sure, but you can find tons of garbage games that got exposure and sales and lots of genius, polished games that didn't sell great.

[starsrift]

well marketed games sell, badly marketed games dont, every once in a while soemthing gets super lucky and generates 'good marketing' thru word of mouth but that's rare and not guaranteed by quality...

...Any bullshit about 'only bad games' having this problem is fucking ridiculous, the quality : sales ratio has never ever been close. Being good helps your odds at getting good press, sure, but you can find tons of garbage games that got exposure and sales and lots of genius, polished games that didn't sell great.

Where would you put ToT's Sunset on your described spectrum?
(That's a trap question, don't answer it)

I think you're applying too simplistic a meterstick, Catguy. I think two things are safe to say about the 'indiepocalypse' - the bar is rising, and personally at least, I don't think that's a bad thing. And secondly, because of Twitch and Youtube media, provocative content is a good sell, while there still remains room for more traditional games that are fun.

Perhaps ironically when mentioned in the context of ToT, provocative means art games. But we're talking about Shakespeare, here, it's art for the commons, not for the aficionado or critic, and if you want to do something rather highbrow, you've gotta throw in the gimmes and cruder humour for the commons as well, such as Romeo and Juliet, or The Stanley Parable.

[Noyemi K]

It's not uncommon for a bust of sorts to follow a boom as a sector experiences growing pains. Though for indies, it's always been a game of chance and marketing (and mobile's apparently a bad target—there's a lot of articles and statistics on the number of apps people download versus the number they actually use or play.)

[s0]

well marketed games sell, badly marketed games dont, every once in a while soemthing gets super lucky and generates 'good marketing' thru word of mouth but that's rare and not guaranteed by quality...

...Any bullshit about 'only bad games' having this problem is fucking ridiculous, the quality : sales ratio has never ever been close. Being good helps your odds at getting good press, sure, but you can find tons of garbage games that got exposure and sales and lots of genius, polished games that didn't sell great.

Where would you put ToT's Sunset on your described spectrum?
(That's a trap question, don't answer it)

I think you're applying too simplistic a meterstick, Catguy. I think two things are safe to say about the 'indiepocalypse' - the bar is rising, and personally at least, I don't think that's a bad thing. And secondly, because of Twitch and Youtube media, provocative content is a good sell, while there still remains room for more traditional games that are fun.

Perhaps ironically when mentioned in the context of ToT, provocative means art games. But we're talking about Shakespeare, here, it's art for the commons, not for the aficionado or critic, and if you want to do something rather highbrow, you've gotta throw in the gimmes and cruder humour for the commons as well, such as Romeo and Juliet, or The Stanley Parable.

i think you're forgetting that theres no universal formula for "good marketing". some games are harder to market than others.

[gimymblert]

There is no formula for "good quality" either it's relative to the market segment and their values.

BTW in the case of ToT the problem of sunset is not "success" or "quality" it's "mistargeting". They have a known size of followers, they tried to reach out outside that market with element that please that market and lack of knowlegde in element that please the broader market, the budget inflated and they got bit in the ass for taking that risk, their game reach out their follower but no more, they didn't acquired the skill to address another market..

[Xonatron]

Rami Ismail talks a bit about it here, in an amazing talk I would recommend to every indie dev:

Rami Ismail - You Don't Stand a Chance - Control Conference 2015

[Egberto]

Rami Ismail - You Don't Stand a Chance - Control Conference 2015

Thanks for the link

[charliecarlo]

People predict game market crashes possibly more often than Christians predict the Rapture.
And like the Rapture, even if it happens it won't effect me.
I'll go from not making money to still not making money.

But at any rate, if I had to make my own prediction:
I think sensationalism like this will only serve to dissuade people who are solely into indie games for the money.
Less cash-grab Android games and less Minecraft clones on Steam and whatnot.
Good games will continue to be made and we will move forward as an industry, unimpeded.

[Shackhal]

And just when I saw Rami's talk, I saw this thread.

Well, the indiepocalypse is not a big deal. It will adapt to it anyway. Just consider that in the future, we'll make games to other stuff. Like holographic games.

[Cobralad]

fun fact: if you had gamedev company before 2011, you went bankrupt at some point and were assimilated into Ubisoft or Activision.

[framk]

It's natural for things to fade in and out of popularity. It's very true that a lot of low quality games have flooded distribution sources like steam, but in my mind this is no different than what happened to other marketplaces (iOS, Android). With steam, there was an already established community and demand for new content. Coupled with the increasing rise in popularity of Let's Play videos, which very heavily relied on new fresh and often low quality games to bring in more viewers, you had a perfect storm for an indie bubble.

This has happened in pretty much every industry. Think, just 15 years ago we saw the dot-com bubble burst. Did internet-based companies suddenly disappear? No. All this meant was that the customer demanded more quality in the organizations that were emerging in order to invest their time and money. This forced companies like facebook and google to really develop comprehensive strategies for beating out the competition and gaining people's faith. That's really all worth and value is - faith.

The idea that suddenly there's no hope for indies is absolute bullshit. What we're going to see in this "indiepocolypse" is simply consumers demanding more from developers. This is probably the greatest thing that could happen for games.

[jeremiah]

I'm having a hard time accepting any of the three most common responses: that the indiepocalypse is a myth, that only bad games are failing, that it's a failure of marketing.

First we had Airscape, a game that I imagine would do just fine a few years ago but launched to 150 sales. OK, maybe it's just a mediocre game.

Then I see that Master Spy sells less than 500 copies in its first month. I hear a lot of people raving about it on twitter....

Then Mushroom 11 appears to have sold less than 2000 copies in its first week. Is that bad? For one of the most anticipated and original indie games for years and a 4 person team working on it, seems like it. They were going to lots of shows and winning awards for the last three years.

A lot of people act like you just need to get some Lets Players and yet we've seen instances where millions of views translate into no sales bump at all. Maybe, like some say, it's just that the market for platformers is oversaturated. But people say the same about survival, roguelikes, zombies games, anything. I always find that a weird idea, considering how many bazillion sports games, FPS, and RPGs have been coming out for decades.

[woodsmoke]

Many people release fun little games for free these days.
I can imagine that hurting devs who need to earn money with their indie projects.

That and all the free-to-play going on, could make your typical gamer not want to pay for indie games upfront anymore.

Also $1-2 bundles. They also may be making people not want to spend much on indies, waiting for the bundle, and forgeting the game if it isn't in a bundle someday.

[charliecarlo]

Many people release fun little games for free these days.
I can imagine that hurting devs who need to earn money with their indie projects.

If your game can't compete with freeware it means you made a freeware-quality game with a price tag.
People expect a certain level of quality and content for games they pay money for.
That expectation drops tremendously when browsing for freeware.

[JWK5]

Maybe the people downloading freeware games or getting the dirt cheap bundles are just people who don't have the money to buy more expensive games anyways.

[s0]

also there are freeware games that are better than a lot of commercial games in their genre  

freeware is not a synonym for bad

[starsrift]

I'm having a hard time accepting any of the three most common responses: that the indiepocalypse is a myth, that only bad games are failing, that it's a failure of marketing.

First we had Airscape, a game that I imagine would do just fine a few years ago but launched to 150 sales. OK, maybe it's just a mediocre game.

Then I see that Master Spy sells less than 500 copies in its first month. I hear a lot of people raving about it on twitter....

Then Mushroom 11 appears to have sold less than 2000 copies in its first week. Is that bad? For one of the most anticipated and original indie games for years and a 4 person team working on it, seems like it. They were going to lots of shows and winning awards for the last three years.

I've literally only heard about Airscape and that was only because he made an article on Gamasutra about not being noticed.
So, uh, about that 'failure of marketing' reason you threw away...

[ｂ∀ ｋｋｕｓａ]

those three games are better than

Golden Krone Hotel

so no wonder he's worried.

think game before money.

[jeremiah]

I'm a hobbyist and have no illusions that I'm making a game like any of the ones I mentioned. But thanks for being a jerk anyway. 

[ｂ∀ ｋｋｕｓａ]

you went till the process of trying to get your game into steam. I don't think it's a hobby anymore at this point.