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[eclectocrat]

How are indie game devs affected by an economic downturn. I mean, conventional wisdom would suggest that people spend less money in uncertain times, but does that mean that they buy less things, buy cheaper things, both? Is there an opportunity for indie games to thrive when cash is tight?

Here's a theory, no clue if it works at all, but...
When I'm low on cash and am at the supermarket, I buy the regular two ply toilet rolls instead of 3 ply ultra plush. So if I'm shopping for entertainment would I also buy "the cheaper stuff" (a perception many might have about indie games), or are factors such as franchise loyalty more powerful? What effect does piracy have? Etc...

Conversely, when I'm low on cash I stay away from convenience stores, so as to avoid the temptation of hemorrhaging dollars. What does this mean to games on mobile App stores?

Thoughts anyone?

[1982]

When you get kick out from a work, you have time to play. So it is all bells and whistles.

[moi]

indie devs don't lose their jobs because they don't have real jobs to start with

[1982]

indie devs don't lose their jobs because they don't have real jobs to start with

So indie devs are those who play indie games?

[_Tommo_]

dunno, Indie is also experimentation in the eyes of the casual gamer. And this means that buying an indie game equals risking money, because you don't know beforehand if you will like the game.
And in turn this means that indie games are in a really big trouble when people are short on

I think this is not an absurd possibilty at all: just look at how the "unoriginal" stuff sells way better on casual markets such as iOS, Android or FB,  where the indie boom has ended (or was never started, in the FB and Android case).
... or at how  the "freemium" model is going strong: freemium kills the risk because you get a lot for free, and you can know beforehand if the features you buy are worth the price.

I short: being different means risk, and in an economic downturn risk is the worst... so yeah, indies are having a tough time against insipid and trending AAA/casual games, imo.

[MattG]

we dont lose our jobs just our nest egg

[Eponasoft]

I wisely chose a niche and a platform for which the economic downturn has actually helped to bolster: retro consoles. The costs of games for retro consoles has seen a serious upward spike in recent years, and since "official" development for these machines died years and years ago, independents rule now, and can charge anything they want and players will pay their prices. Of course, that doesn't mean you can charge $150 for a piece of shovelware; you still have to do your work well, but there's a bit of leniency since there is little competition and retro players are starving for new titles... anything they can get their hands on.

A practical example: let's say I spend six months in production on a title, and plan to sell the title for $35 per unit (CDROM distribution). I take pre-orders to cover production costs (takes about 43 orders). 99 times out of 100, I'm going to sell those 43 units in the first few days of the announcement, so production costs are covered almost immediately. There are people who don't want to pre-order but will wait for it to come out, so there's future income too. And people will still pre-order after the production costs are covered. So if I sell 300 pre-orders, that's $10500 - $1505 = $8995 in total profit before the game has even been pressed. And then there's all the orders that will come in afterward. Now, I normally do short runs, only 1000 units. So if they all sell out, it comes out to $33495 in total profits for the production... not too shabby. Of course, I also pay percentages out to those under paid contract... this can be anything from 1% to as high as 15%. On average, I pay out about 30% of the profits to contractors. That leaves me with about $23K... pretty good for a low-run six-month production I do in my spare time when I'm not working my regular job. Of course, this is all assuming that a second run doesn't need to be made... if a second run is manufactured and also sells out, then those figures double. And all of this in this economic downturn.

So yeah... you can make it as an indie if you do it right. Producing mountains of boring shovelware is a great way to go broke (the Android and iPhone markets are saturated with it, and the developers go belly-up every day), attempting to produce the next great epic without having any financial backing is another. Choose a stable platform with loyal buyers, and select productions which are just the right length and appealing to your target market, and you've got a win on your hands, even in these hard times.

[moi]

wow

Pc engine develloper

I want to suck your cock now

[PompiPompi]

Some indies don't make it in both downtime and time of prosperity(Like me )

[Falmil]

I wisely chose a niche and a platform for which the economic downturn has actually helped to bolster: retro consoles. The costs of games for retro consoles has seen a serious upward spike in recent years, and since "official" development for these machines died years and years ago, independents rule now, and can charge anything they want and players will pay their prices.

whaaaaaaaaaaaa

[Triplefox]

The indie game market is mostly related to the size of the game market as a whole.

If the game market grows faster than the economy(which is historically the case) a downturn only acts to slow the progress of the market, it won't go backwards even though many individuals are hurting.

However, individual segments of the market can rise and fall according to fashion. "Obvious" fashions of our moment include: Zynga-style social gaming, Minecraft clones, physics puzzles, platform puzzles. Fashions can be helpful or harmful depending on whether you're getting the "ascending" part of the curve(growing awareness and interest) or the "descending."(market saturation)

The last major shift indies saw was in 2007, when the early-2000s "casual gaming" style started to be crowded by more niche and retro genres. The market started getting big enough, more distribution and promotion mechanisms appeared, technology was lowering production time, etc. - so you didn't have to make a casual game anymore. At the same time, bigger publishers like Popcap and Big Fish were starting to come in and saturate the casual market with larger budgets. So the fashions changed - hitting some devs hard - but the market as a whole progressed from there.

This says little about an individual developer's chances, of course

[Eponasoft]

whaaaaaaaaaaaa

Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhh?

[Booger]

I don't think I'll be able to recover.  I planned my game when $20 downloadables were the norm and they had production budgets in the tens of thousands.

So far I spent $15000 on contractors and while the end is in sight, I only plan to release my game, pat myself on the back, and be in the red.

I've been looking at Kickstarters and been kicking myself... "Hey look these guys just release a video and concept art, and people are giving them money even before they complete the game!"

So I'm feeling really, really stupid.

I also look at 8-bit funding and see people are asking for only a couple hundred bucks (or at most a thousand).  In my experience that doesn't even pay the wages of a professional contractor.  They're usually one-man operations so perhaps I should have just practiced so I can do the art myself.  It's kinda too late for me now.  Maybe I should be proud that I have given jobs, but so far only one dude mentioned that I was a lifesaver in giving him work to pay his rent... the rest seem to be doing pretty well by themselves.

It's a good thing that what I'm working on deserves to be made, if not by me than somebody...anybody... it's something that I haven't seen many people make in this market.

I'm just a hobbyist working on my first commercial product... expect it to be my last as well.  I'll stick to freeware from now on (and if I get desperate even charge for what used to pass for freeware).

[bluescrn]

I don't think I'll be able to recover.  I planned my game when $20 downloadables were the norm and they had production budgets in the tens of thousands.

This is the real issue. To me, it seems that the 'race to the bottom' devalutation of indie games (well, and games in general), via the App Store, Indie Bundles, relentless Steam Sales, and so on has done more harm than the economic mess we're in.

Whilst maybe 1% of indie devs do really well out of such things (with those running the stores/doing the bundles doing even better...), it's made things a whole lot harder for the other 99%.

We've now got this tiny minority of 'super-indies', that are basically getting the majority of the 'indie game' media attention and the majority of the money.

Oh well, 'We are the indie 99%!'

[ஒழுக்கின்மை (Paul Eres)]

i'm fine, my games make the same amount as usual each month (i.e. very little), but i can't say the same for my family; both my mother and my two sisters have lost their jobs within the last two years

[MattG]

This is the real issue. To me, it seems that the 'race to the bottom' devalutation of indie games (well, and games in general), via the App Store, Indie Bundles, relentless Steam Sales, and so on has done more harm than the economic mess we're in.

There are those like myself and a few others who fight this bullshit trend. Fuck the fat ass scumbots who try to milk off indies while they scumbots get all the bucks.

[Moczan]

Humble Indie Bundles earn few hundreds of thousand dollars in 2-week time frame for each developer, I wouldn't call it devaluation of indie games.

[ஒழுக்கின்மை (Paul Eres)]

yeah but the % of people who get into the humble indie game bundle are like 0.1% of indies. are you seriously suggesting that just because a couple of indie games are doing well that makes everything alright?

[Desert Dog]

I don't think I'll be able to recover.  I planned my game when $20 downloadables were the norm and they had production budgets in the tens of thousands.

So far I spent $15000 on contractors and while the end is in sight, I only plan to release my game, pat myself on the back, and be in the red.

I've been looking at Kickstarters and been kicking myself... "Hey look these guys just release a video and concept art, and people are giving them money even before they complete the game!"

So I'm feeling really, really stupid.

I also look at 8-bit funding and see people are asking for only a couple hundred bucks (or at most a thousand).  In my experience that doesn't even pay the wages of a professional contractor.  They're usually one-man operations so perhaps I should have just practiced so I can do the art myself.  It's kinda too late for me now.  Maybe I should be proud that I have given jobs, but so far only one dude mentioned that I was a lifesaver in giving him work to pay his rent... the rest seem to be doing pretty well by themselves.

It's a good thing that what I'm working on deserves to be made, if not by me than somebody...anybody... it's something that I haven't seen many people make in this market.

I'm just a hobbyist working on my first commercial product... expect it to be my last as well.  I'll stick to freeware from now on (and if I get desperate even charge for what used to pass for freeware).

Well, depends on how you look at it. (and how much you claw back). You might only claw back 10k on the game, so does that mean your 5k in the red? Technically, yes, but you've got 10k which can go towards your next project. In other words, that 15k you invested in your first game has (hopefully)set you up to create many other indie games. It'd be cool to get a hit like minecraft, or angry birds, but otherwise, doesn't real profit come from multiple games? Several games making $20-$100 a week each, is a fair base to work off, and 'hopefully' as your game base builds up, you'll get returning customers to try&buy your other games.

Obviously, a lot depends on your situation, whether you've got regular 'other' work, whether this game actually makes some decent cash, etc etc. But definitely all is not lost... until the game flops, badly, anyway, and then you can panic.

[dustin]

yeah but the % of people who get into the humble indie game bundle are like 0.1% of indies. are you seriously suggesting that just because a couple of indie games are doing well that makes everything alright?

I don't think he was saying that that shows indies are all doing ok I think he was just refuting this quote (I bolded the important bit)...

This is the real issue. To me, it seems that the 'race to the bottom' devalutation of indie games (well, and games in general), via the App Store, Indie Bundles, relentless Steam Sales, and so on has done more harm than the economic mess we're in.

He's just saying that the humble bundle isn't a devaluation of indie games like some of the others are...