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[Fredrik_]

If you go for XNA plus Silverlight you should be able to target web + wp7 + xbox arcade.

That is my plan anyway and I just recently started where I target web first then wp7 and last xbox.

[LemonScented]

If GoogleTV and AppleTV will remain as open as their mobile counterparts, and include analog joystick peripheral support...

I can't see Apple ever making a controller featuring joysticks or buttons. They seem to have an almost pathological phobia of buttons. I could see them doing something like having software to turn an iPhone/Pod/Pad into a sort of controller emulator which would talk to the TV box. No idea what GoogleTV would do, hardware-wise (I'm only dimly aware that they were even planning on getting into TV boxes).

You're right, though... If a suitably open console/TV box ever does go on the market (and doesn't flop immediately) then it would give consoles a serious run for their money. The closed-ness of those platforms has been a huge part of their success in the past, but I can see a future where it could start doing more harm than good

[moi]

The concept of onlive seems pretty interesting if it works

[nicolasgb]

I've heard that Sony has an Indie program that allows you to retain rights to your IP. I'm not sure what their cut is?  I'm sure it's comparable to XBLIG/XBLA/Steam.  I can certainly see Sony as being "desperate".  I honestly have no clue how well PSN is really faring these days compared to XBLA.  My perception is that XBLA is dominating PSN.

[disclaimer: I am not (yet) a PSN or XBLA developer so I can only speak for what I've heard from fellow developers]

Sony has the Pub Fund : when development is finished, they may (not will!) pay you back development costs in the form of royalty advance with a 100% recoup rate. So it's a pretty big deal if you can get it, they basically ensure you that your game is profitable.
As for the royalty rate it's similar to Steam or XBLA i.e. in the region of 70% if you self-publish the game.

As for XBLA vs PSN : XBLA is a larger market, I'd say about 2 to 4 times bigger. I've heard some people estimate the XBLA market to 700 millions $ to 1 billions, but I don't have any data to back this up.

Most developers these days advise to chose PSN over XBLA, though, as Microsoft has apparently become really unsuportive of independent developers. I'd talk to both and see what happens.

[BrianSlipBit]

Most developers these days advise to chose PSN over XBLA, though, as Microsoft has apparently become really unsuportive of independent developers. I'd talk to both and see what happens.

No doubt.  I think it's pretty much a given that Sony is probably the best approach if you absolutely want to be on a console and don't want to go the XBLIG route.

[nicolasgb]

Yeah. It could change though, at some point MS are going to realize they're shooting themselves in the foot. Well it's more like a small thorn given XBLA's revenue, but still.
And on the other hand as the PSN gets filled with more games, Sony might want to start closing the doors a little.

[SaturnineGames]

Just another thing to throw out there. Make sure to read any developer agreements *very* carefully before signing. I'm not allowed to go into detail, but, the PSP (and I'd assume PS3 as well) developer agreement had a few clauses in it I really wasn't comfortable agreeing to. Some of the clauses could leave you with huge financial penalties and put a startup out of business easily. The agreement basically treats it as an honor to work with Sony, and protects them as much as possible.

Nintendo's agreements are much more sane. The agreements read as one between equal business partners and don't have anything out of the ordinary.

I haven't seen Microsoft's agreements, so I can't comment there.

[moi]

Just another thing to throw out there. Make sure to read any developer agreements *very* carefully before signing. I'm not allowed to go into detail, but, the PSP (and I'd assume PS3 as well) developer agreement had a few clauses in it I really wasn't comfortable agreeing to. Some of the clauses could leave you with huge financial penalties and put a startup out of business easily. The agreement basically treats it as an honor to work with Sony, and protects them as much as possible.

Nintendo's agreements are much more sane. The agreements read as one between equal business partners and don't have anything out of the ordinary.

I haven't seen Microsoft's agreements, so I can't comment there.

I think all publishers agreements are like that.
Basically they say that if someone sues Sony for your game then you will bear full responsibility, and they will make you pay for every financial loss you incured onto them (except for when the game doesn't sell)

[SaturnineGames]

I think all publishers agreements are like that.
Basically they say that if someone sues Sony for your game then you will bear full responsibility, and they will make you pay for every financial loss you incured onto them (except for when the game doesn't sell)

That sort of stuff I expect, that's not the issue.