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[valis]

[from a post he deleted] Why do you feel the need to continue pissing on other people's parade?  We've heard you in the other threads already.

Are dissenting voices permitted here or is this thread just for those who think this is workable?

Have any experience with venture cap?  I do.  What's yours?

[ஒழுக்கின்மை (Paul Eres)]

i believe there's a market for indie games -- there are several hundred indie games on steam for instance. of the commercial 2d platformers that i know of, most have been profitable: an untitled story, eversion, super meat boy, braid, vvvvvv, cave story wii -- i can't think of many *commercial* 2d platformers that have flopped, actually (just aztaka, offhand). spelunky xbla, la mulana wii, and fez also look like they'll be successful. i don't really see how you believe there is little to no market for indie games -- what is your evidence of this, besides just claiming it? to claim this in the face of the indie game market's most successful year, with minecraft selling over a million copies, seems a bit odd too.

i agree that most indie game projects asking for funding aren't going to get funded, but the percent is probably larger than you think: go to kickstarter and go to the 'games' category, and count the % fully funded. from what you said, you'd expect it to be 1% or less, but it's more like 10%-20% of projects there that get fully funded. which is still a minority, but i'd take 1/10 or 1/5 odds on a bet that involves losing nothing if i lose any day. but even if your math were right and it was less than 1% likely that someone would fund your indie game, there's really nothing to lose in asking for funding, and everything to gain.

(bias note: my own project was successfully funded on kickstarter in 2009: i asked for $195 to pay for the igf fee and the fmod license fee, and got $1500 instead, with which i bought (among other things to help my games) a macbook for the purposes of porting my game to the mac and licensed some sound effects. so my beliefs are colored by positive experiences regarding asking for funding for indie games.)

[moi]

Valis, if you hate indie games so much, why are you posting here?

[tametick]

Have any experience with venture cap?  I do.  What's yours?

Only with my project on 8bitfunding (which isn't really venture capital, but it is this thread's topic), and it's actually going pretty well so far.

8bf is only a week and a bit old and there are already at least 2 games which will get funded for sure (you need to pass 50% to get any of the money), Cardinal Quest & Expedition.

I think we will see that number rise quickly as time goes on and more people become aware of 8bf.

[valis]

I could very well be wrong.

don't really see how you believe there is little to no market for indie games -- what is your evidence of this, besides just claiming it?

According to statistics from the App Store, the average amount made by games is something like $1 per day.  The vast majority of these games are released by small independent developers.  The vast majority of the games that are more successful than that are released by large dev houses-- this means that the non-indie games skew the results, so the prospects for indie games are in fact even smaller than what the raw average would seem to indicate.

i agree that most indie game projects asking for funding aren't going to get funded

Right.  And the more that attempt to use these funding channels, the less money there is going to be in the total pool.

I'd be very interested to see what the number of funded projects in Kickstarter looks like as the number of total projects increases.  If this funding method is not somehow different from other funding methods and gold rushes in the past, there will be rapid and increasing falloff over time of games that are successfully funded.

from what you said, you'd expect it to be 1% or less

Actually I never specified an exact figure.

[valis]

Valis, if you hate indie games so much, why are you posting here?

Moi, where, specifically, did I say anything whatsoever about my opinion of indie games?

Be specific-- I want to see your answer.

[tametick]

i agree that most indie game projects asking for funding aren't going to get funded

Right.  And the more that attempt to use these funding channels, the less money there is going to be in the total pool.

Actually I think the more games are on the site the more publicity and press coverage 8bf itself is going to get.

[valis]

Actually I think the more games are on the site the more publicity and press coverage 8bf itself is going to get.

That's very possible, and the funding source is no longer going to be "in the know" indie devs but the public at large.  And there you're getting into $1/day territory [that is, 1/day for games that are actually finished...]

Don't get me wrong-- it would be wonderful if there was a funding source available for all the unique and original games out there.

I'm just extremely skeptical as to whether that's true.

[ஒழுக்கின்மை (Paul Eres)]

the app store isn't a very good estimate, as the app store includes both indie and non-indie games, and the quality of games on there is more similar to flash games. you have to consider all indie game markets, not just the least profitable. also consider xblig, xbla, wiiware, psn (ps3's downloadable games), pc downloadable games (including casual games), flash games, social games (facebook games), and so on.

also, to be clear, the average sales of something in a market isn't a good indication of a market. the average published novel sells fewer than 1000 copies. does that mean there is "no market for novels"? not at all. how strong a market is isn't a factor of how well the average person in that market does, it's a factor of how big that market is relative to other markets, and how many people buy things in that market: because there are iphone games that sell millions of copies, even though the average iphone game sells dozens of copies, the market for iphone games is *millions of people*, not dozens of people.

we can at least objectively say that the market for indie games -- e.g. the number of people who bought an indie game in the last year -- is at least one million people (since more than one million people bought minecraft alone). probably much more, i'd be surprised if it weren't more than five million. that's a significant market. of course it's not distributed evenly, there is (as you mentioned) a long tail, where many games only sell a few thousand copies; my last game immortal defense for instance sold only about 2000-3000 copies, despite critical acclaim (though it was a 2007 game when the market was smaller then).

this is a bigger market than for, say, accordians. fewer than 1 million people bought an accordian in the past year. but if you look at the profit of accordian-makers, it's probably higher than the average profit of indie games, because there are fewer people making accordians than people making indie games. so it's a supply and demand thing: the market for indie games is rather large, but so is the supply of indie games, so the outcome is that the average game makes very little (and is of low quality) even if there are a huge number of games that are successful as well.

but if you only expect to do average, that's what you're going to do: you have to aim for higher things than average. if you're not the average indie game developer -- if you have more experience and are willing to put more work into making games than the average indie game developer does (which is often very little work, because as a species we're lazy) -- you can expect to do better than average. many indie devs consistently do far better than average. for instance, the average amount of money in sponsorship a flash game makes seems to be something like $300, but for the people who do it professionally they often get $10k or more for each of their flash game sponsorships, because they know what they are doing.

in other words, sales are stratified but the developers are also stratified, with the more experienced, hard-working, better-connected, and talented developers getting more sales. so if you're experienced, hard-working, well-connected, and talented, you can expect to make more than the average iphone game makes. your competitors are not those games because your games would be so much better than those games.

[valis]

is at least one million people (since more than one million people bought minecraft alone). probably much more, i'd be surprised if it weren't more than five million

As silly as it sounds to say, Minecraft is an extremely high-end and polished product as far as indie games go.

It also happened to hit an extremely lucky and rare sweetspot.

Also, since there's a finite cash reserve, these games (SMB, Minecraft etc) actually drain the pool of money available for smaller projects.

Hey, if this ends up creating some huge cornucopia of money available to provide asset money for independent games, that would be amazingly great.

I would just be absolutely astounded if that were to happen.

I've also experienced quite a bit of hostility here, frankly extreme rudeness.  Turns out that some of the most hostile posts have been from people who actually have products currently seeking funding.  In a more serious setting that would be considered a conflict of interest.  Clue for the immature kids: my opinion here has very little bearing on whether platformer #474846 or roguelike #293746 succeeds or not.

Another inauspicious fact: for a lot of these products, you're getting into a space where you're competing with free software, some of which is produced to a surprisingly high standard of production values.  How they are able to do that I really have no idea but they do.

[ஒழுக்கின்மை (Paul Eres)]

the 'minecraft is a fluke' thing may be true, but it's not the first indie game to sell more than 1m copies: bejeweled and snood are others. it's just the first non-casual indie game to sell more than 1m copies (in the 21st century anyway, if we exclude early "indie" games like doom).

it's true that you don't see 1m+ copy-selling indie games every year, but you do see 100k+ copy-selling indie games every year (and several of them). so we could objectively say that the *consistent* market for indie games, over the years, is at least several hundreds of thousands of people, which isn't too bad at all.

but is 'minecraft was a fluke' really your only counter-argument to everything i just said? so you do not disagree that a indie game market is measured in its absolute size, not in what the average iphone game makes? and you don't disagree that what the average makes says very little (if anything) about what someone individually will make? and that you lose nothing in asking for funding anyway, so there's no reason not to do it? because those things, if you agree to them or have no answer to them, seem to cleanly refute your earlier posts.

[Christian Knudsen]

Also, since there's a finite cash reserve, these games (SMB, Minecraft etc) actually drain the pool of money available for smaller projects.

You're assuming that finite cash reserve has been exhausted. I don't think that's the case. I think more quality indie games will cause more money to be spent on them.

I've also experienced quite a bit of hostility here, frankly extreme rudeness.

Because you were posting in threads where people were simply trying to create awareness for their games on 8 Bit Funding and not commenting on the games, but on how you found the concept of 8 Bit Funding to be repulsive. It's kinda like if someone else started harping on those developers for using a specific programming language. That's not what those threads were for and you were polluting them. I'm glad you're posting in the correct thread now, since I don't think you're completely off the mark in some of your views on 8 Bit Funding.

Turns out that some of the most hostile posts have been from people who actually have products currently seeking funding.

Yes, because you were polluting the threads on their products! And, honestly, a lot of the people responding in an annoyed manner to you do not have projects on 8 Bit Funding.

Clue for the immature kids: my opinion here has very little bearing on whether platformer #474846 or roguelike #293746 succeeds or not.

Calling them immature kids is not a smart move if you're really looking for an honest and good-natured discussion on this.

Another inauspicious fact: for a lot of these products, you're getting into a space where you're competing with free software, some of which is produced to a surprisingly high standard of production values.  How they are able to do that I really have no idea but they do.

Perhaps they live in a richer country and can save up money? Perhaps they're fortunate to have a well-paying job? Perhaps they've managed to save up a great deal of money? Perhaps they've inherited a fortune? Perhaps they've won the lottery?

People have different financial situations. Just because some people are able to make quality indie games for free doesn't mean that's possible for all people.

---

Anyway, I feel one of the biggest things that could hold back 8 Bit Funding is the "developers paying developers" aspect of it. There has to be some motivation for people that are only gamers to visit such a site. I'd bet 99% of the people currently visiting it are developers themselves.

[ஒழுக்கின்மை (Paul Eres)]

for the record, most of the people who funded my saturated dreamers project on kickstarter were not indie game developers, but fans who had bought my previous games. there were a few indie game developers who did contribute too, though. i think this sort of thing works best when you have an established fan base.

[valis]

Calling them immature kids is not a smart move if you're really looking for an honest and good-natured discussion on this.

No.  Calling me an "asshole" and a "massive dickhole?"  Now that was not a smart move.

Got a problem with my expression of my opinion on this subject?

Tough.

I don't think you're completely off the mark in some of your views on 8 Bit Funding.

That was easy.

[Christian Knudsen]

for the record, most of the people who funded my saturated dreamers project on kickstarter were not indie game developers, but fans who had bought my previous games. there were a few indie game developers who did contribute too, though. i think this sort of thing works best when you have an established fan base.

But if you already have an established fan base ready to support you, do you really need Kickstarter or 8 Bit Funding? Couldn't you set up a donation drive yourself on your own website? Shouldn't sites like Kickstarter and 8 Bit Funding mostly be for projects that don't have an existing fan base to draw from -- i.e. one site that will draw in a large crowd of people willing to support various projects? Otherwise all it seems to be is a payment processor and a template for creating a webpage for your project.

I kinda feel that 8 Bit Funding would perhaps work even better if it had more to offer to non-developers that just games in development. What if you could also play flash games there or download finished games. Whenever you play a game, you could then be presented with the current project from the developer, asking if you'd like to donate or preorder. Sort of a "If you liked this game, why not support this new one we're working on?". Or developers could recommend other projects in development that don't yet have finished games to show?

I don't know. Currently it just feels too much like a collection of separate project webpages. The community aspect and interplay between projects just seems to be missing.

[valis]

Question: how would it be handled if some developer collects, say, 10 grand, then dies?  Or, say, decides not to make the game after all and to keep the money?  And just disappears, or keeps saying "It'll be done next week?"

Who is financially liable?  I'm not a lawyer but this sounds like it might represent a potential legal problem for the parent organization.

[Christian Knudsen]

It's entirely between the contributor and the project owner.

http://www.8bitfunding.com/static.php?static_id=1

[ஒழுக்கின்மை (Paul Eres)]

i doubt there would be a legal problem over someone losing 20$ for paying for a pre-order for a game that never gets made, the lawyer fees would be more than the entire funding amount anyway

also let the record show that valis keeps looking for ways to attack the idea of funding indie games (e.g. legal issues) and talking about how rude everyone is being towards him rather than replying to rebuttals to his points

[valis]

also let the record show that valis keeps looking for ways to attack the idea of funding indie games (e.g. legal issues)

Paul, I'm just asking questions here.  Is that OK with you?

I've been involved with VC on both sides, on the funding side since around 2003.  I am talking about large sums of money, in one case a huge sum.  One thing VC people do is to ask a lot of questions.  One of the reasons they do this is to gauge the attitudes of the people involved.

Personally I always did this before I got involved with a project rather than during.

and talking about how rude everyone is being towards him rather than replying to rebuttals to his points

I thought we were just having a friendly exchange of ideas here-- I wasn't aware this was a formal debate.  Do you have your briefcase full of index cards?

Also, why are you so insecure about this?  You seem to really take it personally...

[:^)]

You are one man (I'm assuming you're a man, sorry if I was wrong) expressing his opinion to a crowd that mostly doesn't agree with you.
It's just mob psychology that we would say you don't belong. You were mildly offensive, the crowd was mildly defensive.

If we really want to just have a "friendly exchange of ideas", act friendly. (this rule is for everyone, I'm not pointing anybody out.)
If we are currently incapable of at least that, I'm pretty sure we'll all be going in circles here.

My two cents. Sorry. I'll... Just... Yeah. Fade into the background now.