Congratulations on getting to 100% funded. 264 backers are currently pledging $8,436.
Here are updated graphs for The Forgettable Dungeon:http://i.imgur.com/7TiKpLf.pngHere are notes about those graphs:● October 24th had a $250 tier backer appear that disappeared from that spot the next day. The
daily data Kicktraq graphs shows $-28 for October 25th.
● There is only 1 backer that is unallocated (not tied to a reward tier). This is good. The presence of a $1 tier is expected to cut down on the number of unallocated backers.
● The unallocated funding amount is at a healthy low. You don't have physical rewards, so that unallocated amount shouldn't become large. Remember that unallocated funding usually comes from backers pledging extra for shipping (or campaigns cheating).
● The $24 tier at $1,632 in allocated funding is the best performing tier for contributing towards the funding amount. It is contributing more than the $12 tier and the $9 tier's allocated funding combined (currently $1,482). I consider a drop of 75% in the number of backers from one tier to another to be acceptable in the tiers priced below $100 (such a big drop may sound extreme, but that is what I often see). By that standard the $24 tier for The Forgettable Dungeon is doing very well at getting backers to upgrade from the $12 tier. The drop from the $24 to $40 tier (I'm ignoring the $36 tier) is acceptable.
● The "Percentage of the total number of backers by reward tier over time" graph is used to indicate changes in new backers' preferences. Y-axis gains means the reward is becoming more popular. The $24 tier is on the rise and the $12 tier is falling in popularity of getting picked. The $9 tier is capped, so it will naturally have its percentage decline.
● The average pledge per backer amount is hovering around $32. Many video games with a $15 price end up around $22 to $31 per backer. For a $12 priced main tier (that introduces a copy of the game) it feels just a tiny sliver high, but not high enough to worry about it. From experience the average can stay rather consistent in the Kickstarter trough. It can then rise (due to existing backers upgrading) or still stay consistent in the last week. What this means is that you can divide your stretch goal amounts by $32 to get a rough estimate of how many backers to expect. For example the $12,000 stretch goal for deathmatch mode may need about 375 backers. The $16,000 stretch goal would be looking at about 500 backers. Remember before launch I thought you would need to aim for about 320 backers to reach 100%. The $24 tier doing well is helping to boost the average up.
● The "Score" row is about dividing the number of backers by the number of days into the campaign. This score is believed to be the most heavily weighted part of Kickstarter's ranking algorithm. You want to stay above 8. The famous projects can score in the hundreds in their trough period. One of the big reasons general Kickstarter advice says to have a big launch day is because the first 24 hours is the easiest time to get a high score (and thus more visibility) because it is still dividing the number of backers by 1. After the first 48 hours it gets tougher and many projects just fall to the bottom of the rankings where they get forgotten because they didn't build up a following before launch.
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Kicklytics shows a trend to $9,076 (109% of goal). It feels like you could at least reach the first stretch goal, but it is too late at night for me to do additional calculations.
● The campaign is now in the dreaded Kickstrarter trough period. Look at the shape of the $12 tier getting more of a hump as it has less y-axis gains per day. As Osteel's post mentioned, there is a surge at the end from people who clicked the reminder button and the general sense of urgency the looming deadline brings. I would expect the campaign to grow slow and steady, then have a surge at the end. That is a shape seen in the main reward tiers of many campaigns. Examples:
[1] [2] [3] [4]Going forward:● There is an opportunity to have a Halloween-only project thumbnail or celebrate Halloween in some other way.
● You could pursue cameos of characters from other kickstarted indie games and cross-promotion with other active campaigns.
● The demo is doing well with Let's Players. Keep up trying to get the game into Let's Players' hands.
● Remember to not neglect project updates. Now that the campaign is over 100% that removes some of the urgency. Updates help maintain excitement. The /r/proceduralgeneration subredddit post talking about the first-person then twin-stick shooter origin of the game would make good project update content.
Good luck in the Kickstarter trough. Doing PR can be a marathon.
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