15 backers are currently pledging $510 (4.25%).
About campaign performance:Here are updated graphs:
http://i.imgur.com/mDxuFLe.pngThere was a new $10 tier backer on Monday October 17th. The campaign has now stalled. It has been 4 days without any backer activity.
On Monday, BackerTracker showed a trend to $972 (8.1%) and Kicktraq showed $2,380 (19%) on Monday. On Wednesday, BackerTracker showed $905 (7.5%) and Kicktraq showed $1,785 (14%). BackerTracker currently shows $722 (6.4%). Kicktraq currently shows $1,298 (10%). The campaign might not raise much over what it currently has. Stalled campaigns often just stop experiencing backer activity.
The number of views in the project creator dashboard is one of the best metrics for how much attention the project received with what little exposure happened before the project was buried.
The general pattern on Kickstarter is that many campaigns fail to gain significant traction or greatly smash their minimum funding goals or barely raise over 100% to 120%. One reason for the lack of a middle-ground BeautifulGlitch mentioned is because once a campaign gets close enough, more people start chipping in. I get to watch pledge upgrades happening through my graphs. Getting close enough to 100% means pledge upgrading can fill in the missing amount. The ones that barely raise over 100% often crossed the 100% funded milestone right near the end of their campaigns. After reaching 100% through pledge upgrading, those backers often don't push much further because they already strained themselves to get the campaign over its minimum funding goal. Campaigns with self-boosting happening actually start losing progress after reaching their minimum funding goals. The self-boosting pledges get rolled back over the time remaining, but not rolled back enough to dip the campaign below 100%.
There is the option to cancel, but there aren't penalties for letting an unsuccessful campaign hit its deadline. The scope of the project updates could be reduced and the campaign allowed to coast. An active campaign can provide value through ways like accumulating feedback or interacting with supporters.
About within Kickstarter:Super Toaster X was 47th in popularity for the category on Monday. It has dropped to 64th on Wednesay. It is currently ranked 91st out of 154 active projects.
LOST EMBER continues to dominate the category. The creator of Exploding Kittens has returned with Bears vs Babies. An Undertale art book project has done well.
Even if Super Toaster X started to recover, the campaign would be competing with other struggling campaigns. It is approaching the end of October. This means many 30 day campaigns that launched around the end of September are starting to end.
TINY METAL canceled itself.
http://i.imgur.com/6y3hah4.pngSulphur Nimbus: Hel's Exlixir was funded thanks to large pledges on the final day.
http://i.imgur.com/NcC1bIB.pngSOS Atlas also had large pledges get it over 100%.
http://i.imgur.com/qpEWBYx.pngCourt of the Dead: Underworld Rising canceled itself.
http://i.imgur.com/sPh8TiU.pngAstronaut: The Best had too little too late.
http://i.imgur.com/PRpdC6d.pngThe "empty pub" problem is real on Kickstarter. There've been many projects I would've pledged to during their final countdowns, but I realize their is little chance of them getting funded.
About outside Kickstarter:The flagship AAA marketing campaigns for games like Titanfall 2 and Battlefield 1 are increasing in intensity. PlayStation VR had a good launch. Red Dead Redemption 2 had a teaser trailer.
The big news was the Nintendo Switch reveal.
About the project page:When I hover my mouse over the Windows version link for the demo, there a dropbox link as the destination. This also happens for the Mac version. Hovering over the Linux build link I see the Kickstarter project URL as the destination. Copy and pasted (instead of clicking) the Linux build link works.
About marketing:The word "marketing" has become a vague umbrella term. While many people relate marketing with promotion and building relationships as others have mentioned, it also relates to shaping the product to fit a market. Shaping can actually be the more important part of marketing. Hollywood adaptations of books or making Dead Space 3 a co-op game are examples of when shaping can go wrong in corporate settings.
Branding like Beats headphones (as Zizka mentioned) or Monster HDMI cables prey upon uninformed consumers. The shaping of the product can be for the benefit of the consumers. Instead of manipulating or misleading people into purchasing a product forced upon them, a product is created that is demand.
01: There might be message problems. This is communicating what the game is. This is about benefits, emotional hooks and decision-making information. This can drive away press.
02: There might be problems fitting a market. This can be problems with how the game is shaped. This is about consumers' needs, content and demand.
03: There is an awareness problem. This is about people learning the game exists. It also relates to if they will promote the game to others.
Super Toaster X has a mix of those 3 problems above. The awareness problem won't be easily solvable without dealing with the 2 other problems first.
Super Toaster X's market niche would be people wanting to learn Japanese. It is going to drive away people who don't want to learn Japanese as fall_ark's post shows. That is the type of trade-off going very niche results in. People wanting to learn Japanese through a video game would most likely be anime fans. The game does not feel like a game grown from anime fandom like the other similar learn Japanese games. There is less material for an anime fan to relate to.
Another point is how many people simply browsing the category need to learn Japanese? That narrows down the potential number of backers from Kickstarter. The video games category has many regular CRPG and point-and-click game fans, so there is an in-built audience for those games. Another issue is that projects have already come before that offer games to teach reading Japanese. Potential backers may already have one of the other games in this niche.
I've been consuming sci-fi anime since the early 2000s.
http://i.imgur.com/JrjGeiN.jpgHow I would benefit from playing Super Toaster X was finally getting around to learning hirigana. For spoken Japanese I've passively absorbed the language to already good enough to listen to a show in the background while I perform another task. If I did not want to learn hirigana, then I probably wouldn't have pledged.
About being contacted by "marketers":Since 2013 the marketing "vultures" on Kickstarter has been a growing problem. There is a wide spectrum for what they do. Some take money and run. Others resell submissions to press release distribution. There isn't a wide spectrum for their results as the results are often non-existent. There is little they can really guarantee. Some use bots to inflate the metrics they do promise to hit, including the use of fake backer bots.
Don't expect legit marketers specializing in crowdfunding to approach you. They are busy enough. High-quality projects get referred to them through private networking. The legit ones won't bother once a campaign has launched. Most of what they can do to benefit a campaign has to happen before the campaign launches. I don't know of any that currently do video game projects. There are far easier categories for them to work.
Something to realize is that the pro marketers who are making a 8% to 11% cut off what fancy lamp projects raise have significant involvement in the presentation of a campaign. Often their services involve pitch video production and lots of copywriting. People messaging you through Kickstarter's messaging system aren't going to do 100 hours of work iterating a project page and setting up interviews with cable news networks.
Crowdfunding clients actually tick off many of the checklist items for what defines a poor PR clients to work with, so the best ones seem to eventually quit. They don't have much budget for ads, they don't have past successes, they are desperate and they have a limited amount of time to achieve results. If a PR firm works on a percentage, then only the large $100,000+ projects are worth their time investment. Many will want a minimum guarantee of payment larger than most indie game projects' budgets.
Why do people continue spamming then? Because they keep getting the occasional project creator who will pay. I've failed in the past to convince a project creator from spending $2,000 on what resulted in nothing. I've encountered maybe 2 others that spent a few hundred dollars. Desperate people aren't known for critical thinking.
Another thing is when project creators offer to swap pledges, the campaign with an earlier end-date has a significant advantage in the arrangement. They'll target older campaigns than theirs. They'll offer to pledge $10 to you if you pledge $10 to them and then they pull out if the old campaign is about to succeed.
About a lack of backers from TIGSource:Many indie developers are depending too much on their devblogs as a means of generating followers, when this can be a very long process. Interacting with the public is a skill. It can improve with practice. Maintaining a devblog is great practice for eventually making posts like changelogs in patches, announcements or Kickstarter project updates. Developers learn how to accept criticism and praise. It can also be like a journal. TIGSource does not have the traffic like the large gaming news blogs or big Let's Players like PewDiePie can provide. Even with a great conversion rate of readers into backers, a fair-sized Kickstarter project would still need to seek out press.
Project creators are also surprised often by the lack of backers from /r/gamedev. Many indie developers do support other indie game developers, but something to realize is there are many indie developers in existence. There also is the scenario of struggling indie musicians trying to sell their CDs to other struggling musicians at the same event. An ecosystem like that isn't very sustainable.
What really surprises some project creators is the lack of pledges from close friends and family. That point has been raised in many post-mortems.
While a TIGSource devblog might not result in many backers, what can be more important is these can be backers in the early hours of a campaign. An early backer can be more beneficial than a backer later in the campaign for helping with project visibility.