Given what you've said so far, you are determined to find a problem with everything.
Sorry, that it seems that way!
As long as there's jerky movement I'm not happy because somehow my gutfeeling tells me it should be possible to get smooth, believable motion.
It's not about prediciton at all. It really is about smoothing, and now that I hacked the double exponential smoothing that it won't overshoot the valid range [-1..1] I'm getting there. I achieved that by scaling beta (the amount of trend to factor in) based on where the current value is in the range of valid values. The scaling function evaluates to 0 at 1, 0 and -1 and to 1 at 0.5 and -0.5 which works pretty well, actually.
Performance wise, nearly all the proposed filters are very cheap to evaluate. Exponential smoothing requires a multiply and an add, unweighted moving average requires two adds, a multiply and a load/store, and weighted moving average requires four adds, a multiply, two load/stores and a divide. If your scripting language cannot handle that per-frame for 3000 objects, get a new scripting language, it is useless to you.
I'm using C# and the Unity engine. I guess I'm okay!
Thanks for your reply, even if I annoy you a little, I found your (all) comments really helpful for various reasons.
Well... breakthrough imminent, back to work!