2) The core of the existing Flash games market consists of players who are strongly averse to paying for anything.
^^ agree!
One of the big problems with the Flash market is that it's hard to monetize your games. They are usually shorter-form games (as compared to the big-box titles) and the players are very "I don't wanna pay." On top of that, people don't typically play a game as long as the big-box bretheren; attention spans are shorter.
MTX are an attempt to skirt around those issues. Nobody wants to pay $60 for a flash game, so the price has gotta be cheaper. A lot of games (for me: Fantastic Contraption) charge $10 for premium content, but even *that* is pretty pricey, considering most people want "free". FC on the iPhone doesn't sell worth anything until we dropped the price to $6, and even then, the average app price is what - $1?
Heck, look at the world-of-goo average price during their birthday-bash choose-your-own-price sale. Something like $2-3.
Charging pennies or only a dollar or two will expand your payment opportunities by leaps and bounds.
But the neat thing is - most people that are willing to spend a dollar on a game -- aren't averse to spending another dollar on the game down the road. In fact, most people that have made an MTX purchase in a game in the past are more likely to pay again.
So suddenly we aren't trying to pay for content or a big chunk of the game - we have to make the game purchasable in several bits. This is usually accomplished by buying "little things" -- things that usually make gameplay easier or more personalized but do not affect the core gameplay elements all that much.
And let's not forget that as much as we increase our sales -- a "good" conversion rate is still pathetically small. Usually counted in sub-3% terms. That means if you want to have a successful game, you have to keep your FREE players happier than your paying customers. That means the core of the game must be free and engaging; perhaps even give people the chance to buy that top-hat even if they never pull out the credit card. This is where monetization systems come in handy (like bars vs. coins in Puzzle Pirates). PPirates essentially PAYS YOU .. what is it.. 20 cents an hour to play their games?
And as much as it saddens my heart, selling tophats is probably the #1 sales tool in our market right now. People want to see their characters personalized; if they are willing to pay us for that, why not let them? Especially considering they won't typically pay you otherwise? Not saying there isn't room to innovate...
With FC, Colin Northway decided to put up premium content for $10. Turns out the game was a hit and a lot of people purchased, at first -- but as the game grew older, those paying customers kept playing -- and kept playing... and kept playing... and never purchased anything else. People often complain (I still get emails every few weeks) about there not being anything new to unlock or any ways to customize the game experience. We really missed out on capitalizing on that, and as such the 'long tail' is much thinner than we'd like. Our core members have been playing our simple flash game for over a year now. (!!!)
I'll agree that the long-form Flash game is a rare beast, and there is more and more opportunity for this market every day. It's very much in it's infancy. But MTX is "in" right now for the simple reason that it's one of the most *effective* ways of getting people to pay. If you come up with a better solution, please let us know!